The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2008 report describes Web 2.0 as about to enter the "Trough of Disillusionment", but adds that it will return in less than two years to have a transformational impact on organisations.
"Web 2.0 has been hyped a lot, to the extent that many investors view it as a bubble, but in most cases it has not delivered tangible business value," said report author Jackie Fenn.
"We believe that it will follow the hype cycle and, following initial disillusionment, progress eventually to large-scale shifts in creating intellectual capital and decision-making."
Cloud computing and SOA, which deliver "a more flexible and agile IT capability", will have the same impact as Web 2.0 in a slightly longer timeframe – two to five years – according to Fenn.
Other technologies that will likely achieve mainstream acceptance in two to five years include microblogging, social computing and telepresence, said the analyst firm.
However, Fenn argued that all of these technologies would vary in their impact depending on industry and organisational requirements.
"The main message of the hype cycle is that organisations need to make sure that when they adopt technologies early, they do so for the right reasons – because it is aligned with an area where it is important for them to innovate, not because everyone is doing it," she argued.
Gartner throws weight behind enterprise Web 2.0
By Phil Muncaster on Aug 13, 2008 7:19AM