Trump opens door to sales of version of Nvidia's next-gen AI chips in China

US President Donald Trump has suggested he might allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of its next-generation advanced GPU chip in China, despite deep-seated fears in Washington that China could harness American artificial intelligence capabilities to supercharge its military.

Trump also confirmed and defended an agreement calling for US AI chip giant Nvidia, led by Jensen Huang, and Advanced Micro Devices to give the US government 15 percent of revenue from sales of some advanced computer chips in China, after his administration greenlit exports to China of less advanced AI chips known as the H20 last month.

"Jensen also has the new chip, the Blackwell. A somewhat enhanced-in-a-negative-way Blackwell. In other words, take 30 percent to 50 percent off of it," Trump told reporters in an apparent reference to slashing the chip's capability.

"I think he's coming to see me again about that, but that will be an unenhanced version of the big one," he added.

Trump's administration halted sales of Nvidia's H20 chips to China in April, but the company said last month it had won clearance to resume shipments and hoped to start deliveries soon. 

"The H20 is obsolete," Trump said, saying China already had it. "So I said, 'Listen, I want 20 percent if I'm going to approve this for you, for the country'," he added.

The deal is extremely rare for the US and marks Trump's latest intervention in corporate decision-making, after pressuring executives to invest in American manufacturing and demanding new Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign over ties to Chinese companies.

Analysts said the levy may hit margins at the chipmakers and set a precedent for Washington to tax critical US exports, potentially extending beyond semiconductors.

The US Commerce Department has started issuing licenses for the sale of H20 chips to China, another U.S. official said on Friday.

Both the US officials declined to be named because details have not been made public. 

The China curbs are expected to cost Nvidia and AMD billions of dollars in revenue, and successive US administrations have sought in recent years to limit Beijing's access to cutting-edge chips that could bolster China's military.

Washington does not feel the sale of H20 and equivalent chips compromises national security, said the first US official.

The official did not know when or how the agreement with the chip companies would be implemented, but said the administration would be in compliance with the law. 

The US Constitution prohibits Congress from laying taxes and duties on articles exported from any state. The Export Clause applies to taxes and duties, not user fees.

When asked if Nvidia had agreed to pay 15 percent of revenues to the US, a company spokesperson said: "We follow rules the US government sets for our participation in worldwide markets." 

"While we haven't shipped H20 to China for months, we hope export control rules will let America compete in China and worldwide," the spokesperson added.

A spokesperson for AMD said the US approved its applications to export some AI processors to China, but did not directly address the revenue-sharing agreement and said the company's business adheres to all US export controls. 

The Commerce Department did not immediately comment.

China's foreign ministry said the country has repeatedly stated its position on US chip exports.

The ministry has previously accused Washington of using technology and trade measures to "maliciously contain and suppress China."

The Financial Times, which first reported the development, said the chip firms agreed to the arrangement as a condition for obtaining the export licenses for their semiconductors, including AMD's MI308 chips. It added that the Trump administration had yet to determine how to use the money.

"The Chinese market is significant for both these companies so even if they have to give up a bit of the money, they would otherwise make it look like a logical move on paper," AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said. 

'Slippery slope'

Still, analysts and experts questioned the logic of resuming sales if the chips could pose a national security risk.

"Decisions on export licenses should be determined by national security considerations and the tradeoffs of US policy goals, not a revenue-creating possibility," said Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, an independent research institution.

"What it ends up creating is an incentive to control things, to then extract a payment, rather than controlling things because we're actually concerned about the risk to national security."

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said last month the planned resumption of sales of the AI chips was part of US negotiations with China to get rare earths and described the H20 as Nvidia's "fourth-best chip" in an interview with CNBC.

He said it was in US interests for Chinese firms to use American technology, even if the most advanced chips remained barred, to keep them on a US "tech stack".

Some elements of Trump's trade policy are already facing legal scrutiny, with a federal appeals panel skeptical of his claim that a 1977 law, traditionally used to sanction enemies or freeze assets, also empowered him to impose tariffs.

"We aren't sure we like the precedent this sets," Bernstein analysts said of the revenue-share deal. "Will it stop with Chinese AI? Will it stop with controlled products? Will other companies be required to pay to sell into the region?"

"It feels like a slippery slope to us."

The analysts estimated the deal would cut gross margins on the China-bound processors by five to 15 percentage points, shaving about a point from Nvidia and AMD's overall margins.

Nvidia generated US$17 billion ($26.1 billion) in revenue from China in the fiscal year ending January 26, representing 13 percent of total sales.

AMD reported US$6.2 billion in China revenue for 2024, accounting for 24 percent of total revenue.    

Nvidia has warned a China sales halt for H20 chips could cut US$8 billion from July quarter revenue, while AMD has projected a US$1.5 billion annual hit from the curbs.