NBN Co to beat its June rollout target

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NBN Co to beat its June rollout target
NBN Co is smashing uncertainty over its June targets.

Revealed: The numbers, and how they will do it.

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NBN Co is on track to beat its revised June rollout targets by up to 13,000 premises, an analysis by iTnews can reveal.

The turnaround is captured in the latest update to the company's Ready For Service spreadsheet, which shows when cables are expected to be able to carry retail internet services.

The numbers come after a couple of high-pressure months for the company. They also could not have come at a better time, with NBN Co's executives due to front Budget Estimates on Thursday night.

iTnews' analysis shows NBN Co is on track to pass between 171,836 and 185,808 brownfields premises with fibre by the end of June.

Its target is between 155,000 and 175,000.

NBN Co is making a similar recovery in new housing estates. Revised June rollout targets for those had it passing between 35,000 and 45,000 new homes, but actually it is on track to pass between 41,825 and 47,243 premises.

Combined, NBN Co is looking at between 213,688 and 233,051 premises passed by the end of June, eclipsing the target range of between 190,000 and 220,000.

iTnews' range calculation is quite likely conservative — NBN Co publishes rollout data across a number of databases, and not all are public.

Several factors have also emerged in the past week that present unknown (but most likely positive) impacts.

The story to date

NBN Co has published official rollout statistics up to March 31 this year.

Premises Passed June 2011  June 2012 Dec 2012 March 2013
Brownfields 18,000 29,000 46,100 68,200
Greenfields - 10,000 26,300 27,860

(Source: NBN Co rollout updates)

On paper, they ring alarm bells. If NBN Co is to meet its minimum downgraded June target, it has to pass at least 86,800 brownfields premises between April and June, when it managed to pass just 22,100 in the preceding three months.

And the same for greenfields — requiring 7140 new homes passed, when it managed just 1560 in the three months prior.

NBN Co's March quarter update provided no commitment or re-commitment to meet these June targets (pdf).

"NBN Co remains on course to deliver better broadband to every Australian by June 2021," is all the company said.

The March quarter numbers are ultimately trivial. They merely show why NBN Co downgraded its rollout targets ten days prior.

The more important set of numbers are those for the June quarter. This is what we set out to calculate — and reveal today.

Continue to the next page to see how NBN Co will exceed its brownfields targets.

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