NBN Co plays election catch-up

NBN Co is starting to make up for lost time in its fibre rollout to new housing estates, unveiling plans for a significant boost in new connection numbers by the federal election.

The company added 11,491 new premises to its latest rollout plan for new estates, of which it expects 8087 will be ready to carry retail internet services by the end of the year.

Of those 8087 premises, 4864 — or 60 percent — are expected to be serviceable come election time in September.

The significant new additions to the rollout plan go some way to countering NBN Co's recent admission that it won't meet its June targets in greenfields and brownfields areas.

The company had hoped to pass 55,000 premises in new housing estates by June this year, but now expects to cover off between 35,000 and 45,000 premises.

Anatomy of a delay

An analysis of the latest greenfields figures by iTnews reveals the impact of that delay on the greenfields rollout plan, where the delays are worst, and how NBN Co is redoubling its efforts to get back on track.

The above graph compares the expected ready for service dates of new housing estates from the January, February and April iterations of NBN Co's Ready For Service spreadsheets.

NBN Co did not publish a March iteration.

While the January and February rollout trajectories are fairly similar in shape, the April trajectory is flatter, reaching less premises in the months to June, before making up some of the shortfall by August or September.

The full April scorecard for greenfields estates is:

As one might expect, slippage in the ready for service dates is more pronounced this month than in February, when the last set of data was released.

iTnews' run of the April figures found service-ready dates slipped in 33.8 percent  (n=311) of all land or multi-dwelling unit release stages in line for NBN fibre. In February, this figure was 28.3 percent (n=235).

In addition, only 19 percent (n=175) of estate stages are on track to meet assigned service-ready dates, compared to 38.4 percent of estates (n=319) in February.

And 8.8 percent of stages listed in NBN Co's plan had service-ready dates fast-tracked in April, compared to 19 percent (n=158) in February.

The second half of the scorecard points to a far brighter future for greenfields estates, and is concrete proof that the "additional resources and effort" NBN Co is allocating to the greenfields effort is having an impact.

Many greenfields stages that sat on the rollout list without any indication of when they would be ready for service have now been given a timeframe.

In addition, a huge portion of new land release stages and multi-dwelling units have been added to the rollout schedule, many with service ready dates. A full rundown of these figures can be found on the next page.

Slips by state, POI

Back in February, almost 50 percent of service ready schedule slippages occurred in estates in Queensland.

The other big contributors then were Victoria (22.1 percent, n=52), NSW (13.2 percent, n=31) and Western Australia (10.6 percent, n=25).

Although the same four states are broadly responsible for schedule slippages this month, the proportions are vastly different.

In percentage terms, Victoria tops the list in April — home to 31.5 percent of stages that slipped, followed by Queensland (30 percent).

Analysis of the points of interconnect (POIs) that support the slipped stages turns up a mixed bag: the biggest contributor is a Western Australian POI.

In some POIs, a large number of land release stages in a single estate development may be distorting the overall impression of schedule slippage in that area. 

For example, 16 stages in Townsville had service ready schedules slip between February and April, but ten stages are in a single development, 'North Shore'.

Similarly for South Morang, of the 19 stages impacted by schedule slippage, five are in the 'Eucalypt' development, four are in 'Plenty River Estate' and four in 'Summerhill'.

Campbelltown, Geelong, Geraldton and Slacks Creek are impacted by the same phenomenon but to a far lesser extent (having three or four stages from a single development impacted).

Fast-track to...?

Although 81 estate stages appear to have been fast-tracked when compared to the February Ready For Service plan, many are simply reverting to pre-February expectations.

Only 34.6 percent of stages that had service-ready schedules fast-tracked in April have genuinely been fast-tracked over time; that is, they have genuinely been brought forward over the period from January to now.

About 33.3 percent —or 27 stages — brought forward in April are still behind the service ready dates they held in January.

A further 18.5 percent — or 15 stages — could be considered 'back on track'. Effectively, they had service ready dates that slipped between January and February, but that have reverted to the original timeframe once more.

The other 13.6 percent — 11 stages — have been brought forward by literally a handful of days into the preceding month. For example, from 'May 2013' to '28 April 2013'. 

Read on for how NBN Co is recovering these slippage numbers with a burst of new additions to the rollout schedule.

Explosion of 'new'

NBN Co added 11,491 new premises — split between 238 land release or multi dwelling unit construction stages — to the April Ready For Service plan.

NSW and Victoria are the biggest beneficiaries of the ramp-up. Only Tasmania isn't represented.

Of these newly-added premises to the rollout plan, 8168 have been given an expected ready for service date straight away; there is no time given for when the other 3323 premises might have serviceable connections to the NBN.

It's worth breaking down the number of new premises with assigned service ready dates — the 8168 — to see when they are expected to be declared ready to run retail internet services.

It's also possible to work out around which points of interconnect (POIs) these new premises with expected service ready dates are predominately clustered.

The analysis lists only the top POIs to benefit in the top four beneficiary states. 

NSW

New estates in Sydney's south-west, west and north-west are to be some of the state's biggest beneficiaries of NBN Co's greenfields ramp-up.

Campbelltown has eight new land release stages listed in NBN Co's April plan, Liverpool has six and Castle Hill four.

Other new additions are clustered in regional areas, such as the Hunter (Hamilton, Maitland), Wollongong, Nowra-Bomaderry, Albury and Goulburn (albeit that the latter connects to the Civic POI in the Australian Capital Territory).

Queensland

While Queensland's numbers aren't as large as other states and territories, they are significant given the well-documented fibre rollout issues to new homes in the state. 

iTnews reported in March that almost 50 percent of slippages in the Ready For Service timetable for new housing estates occurred in Queensland.

Some of the hardest hit areas were clustered around the Mackay, Bundaberg, and Kallangur and Petrie POIs. That these areas might now contribute to NBN Co regaining its momentum in the greenfields space is no small feat.

Victoria

The area serviced by the Cranbourne POI in Melbourne's south-east is to be Victoria's big beneficiary of new greenfields connections.

The 577 new premises added are split across 12 developments and 17 land release stages. Multiple stages at developments such as Orchard Views Estate and The Avenue Estate have been included in NBN Co's rollout plan.

South Morang is a mixed bag. In iTnews' last analysis it was an area where ready for service dates for a number of estates had slipped. That trend continues this month, albeit that it is partially offset by the five new estates set to receive active fibre connections before the end of the year.

Western Australia

Though Geraldton is home to the most new estates added to NBN Co's rollout list, the earliest ones to receive active connections are slated for August; most are due to go service ready after the federal election.

New additions in the Kelmscott POI area come from just three housing developments, though they collectively account for nine land release stages.

Subiaco and Wangara Depot's premises counts are similarly derived from a small number of actual developments.