Energy industry will see total transformation by 2030: KPMG report

Renewable energy dominates, sustainability is a core business driver, and data and new tech are driving us beyond net-zero to actual decarbonisation. It’s 2030 and the Australian Government and industry have finally come together to try to prevent total environmental collapse.

This is the picture painted by a new report from KPMG Australia titled 30 Voices on 2030: The Future of Energy that unpacks the perspective of 30 energy experts from organisations including energy incumbents and challengers, academics, government, big tech and investors.

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The report extracts six key predictions from the surveys, which are all unified under the collective view that “industry will be fundamentally transformed — reshaped by changing stakeholder expectations, driven by technology, digitisation, regulation, evolving customer expectations and other innovative and disruptive forces”, the report says.

The first prediction is that renewables will dominate energy production and consumption, supported by natural gas and, especially, hydrogen. It says that solar, wind and battery technology will all lead to Australia having the “highest global per capita penetration of renewable power generation and storage”. 

Where electrification is not optimal, industrial processing and hydrogen produced via zero-emission methods, will fill the gap and Australia will “become the dominant exporter of hydrogen to Asia” by 2050.

Prediction two says that ESG (environment, social and governance) will become a core part of industry thanks to mandatory emissions reporting. We will also see the renewable supply chain overhauled as organisations seek to reduce waste as “The surge in demand for critical minerals and raw materials means that demand now outstrips supply”.

Data will fuel the new energy system, prediction three states, as machine learning and artificial intelligence help companies “better control costs while offering cheaper and more relevant services for their customers”.

However, this will mean a necessary drive toward cybersecurity to de-risk and protect the energy systems that the nation comes to rely on.

This also leads into prediction four, as reliance on new and complicated technologies brings across the talent shortage that much of the IT industry is already seeing. 

“Organisations in [energy and adjacent] sectors are finding their commitment to net zero is enabling them to better attract and retain their workforces. Companies that failed to take talent management seriously have been left behind,” the report says.

Prediction five is that political resistance to urgently reaching net-zero will dissipate. However, global unrest due to resources shortages, as well the instability of a hastily changed energy system, will see greater regulation and Government intervention.

“There is also a strong focus on ensuring this energy transition is democratic — that everyone benefits, and no community is left behind,” the report claims.

Finally, prediction six is the normalisation of net-zero efforts. “What was considered ‘energy activism’ in 2020 is now, in 2030, mainstream due to the influence from climate legal cases. It is seen as fundamental to sustaining pressure on governments and organisations alike.”

It adds that leading organisations will be “looking beyond being carbon neutral and aspiring to becoming carbon negative. They want to pay back their carbon debt and contribute to global action to combat climate change.”

The report paints an optimistic future for our life-sustaining climate, although it relies on the cooperation of industry, legislative action from the Federal Government and intensified social pressure.