The NBN Co Business plan at a glance

 

Everything you need to know in one fell swoop.

NBN Co today released its 2010-2013 Corporate Plan, forecasting a 7.04 percent rate of return over thirty years based on arguably optimistic assumptions.

The 160-page document revealed that uniform national wholesale prices would start at $24 a month for a basic 12/1 Mbps service, while a high-end 1 Gbps downstream service would cost $150 a month.

Just over half a million Australians were expected to be using NBN-supplied services by June 2013, with the network passing around 1.7 million premises at that time, and 10 million houses after 9.5 years.

First and second release sites for the NBN were expected to be delayed by changes to NBN Co's Points of Interconnect plan, under which it would build 120 PoIs in accordance with ACCC recommendations, rather than the 14 aggregation points the network builder originally proposed.

NBN Co expected to spend a total of $35.9 billion in capital expenditure, plus $21.8 billion in operating expenditure, including $13.7 billion to lease assets from Telstra.

Between now and 2021, the company expected to require $27.5 billion from the Australian taxpayer and a further $13.4 billion in debt funding - a total of $40.9 billion.

In May 2010, the NBN Implementation Study estimated taxpayer inputs of $26 billion. Opposition communications spokesman Malcolm Turnbull labelled the $1.5 billion increase as a "blow out".

NBN Co's predictions also assumed -- perhaps optimistically -- that the Federal Government would continue to provide the required funding and grant it "powers and immunities" to deploy the network despite any opposition from State or Local Government authorities.

The Corporate Plan also assumed that the Government would pass "cherry picking" laws that prevented NBN Co's competitors from over-building networks in high-density areas. Without this law, NBN Co's rate of return would fall to below five percent, resulting in up to $2 billion more in costs to the taxpayer.

NBN Co also assumed that that Telstra shareholders would agree to lease Telstra's fixed assets for $13.7 billion, that Federal Government would allocate the 2.3 GHz spectrum exclusively to NBN Co for the provision of wireless services, and that no Australian businesses and no more than 13 percent of residential premises would have no need for the fibre network.

It also expected the wider telecommunications industry to comply with ACCC regulations around wholesale pricing, and that it would have a role in connecting "non-premise" nodes such as Automatic Teller Machines and traffic lights on a commercial basis.

Turnbull claimed the Corporate Plan showed "no evidence" of a requirement for 100 Mbps internet speeds in the household sector, despite NBN Co claiming that applications such as social media, multimedia, basic entertainment and news and "cutting-edge voice, video, data and graphics" would spur greater use of the network.

NBN Co chief executive Mike Quigley told media that user demand was exponentially increasing and there was little evidence to suggest it would flatten during the construction period. And should its assumptions not pan out, NBN Co left open the possibility that it would alter prices to arrive at its revenue projections.

The company planned to buy excess satellite capacity from existing private operators until launching its own satellite in the 2015 financial year, when it would begin seeking funds from capital markets that year.

Defending the release of NBN Co's business planning documents, Communications Minister Senator Stephen Conroy said it had "never been done before" for a government enterprise.

"It certaintly didn't occur under the Howard government," he said. "The Gillard Government is committed to ensuring Australians are provided with as much detail as possible without compromising commercial sensitivities.

"It means all Australians can look at the assumptions and costings of the NBN. It's important to note that taxpayers will get their investment back from the NBN with interest and they will get a network they can use for decades."

Copyright © iTnews.com.au . All rights reserved.


The NBN Co Business plan at a glance
"What about the cost? That's $35.9 Billion in capital expenditure plus $21.8 Billion for operating funds -- for a total of $57.7 Billion. There are 22,517,262 people in Australia according to the ..."
By cduston
 
 
 
Comments: 14
Mark D
Dec 20, 2010 7:06 PM
"$24 a month for a basic 12/1 Mbps service, while a high-end 1 Gbps downstream service would cost $150 a month."

A very reasonable price.

Bring it on.
DazzaJ
Dec 20, 2010 8:37 PM
24 dollars a month WHOLESALE which would equate to a minimum of 50 to 60 dollars a month retail on a very conservative business plan.

IE more than 50% higher than current offerings for a slower MAXIMUM speed basic connection!
&%*^ it off!
peterh_oz
Dec 20, 2010 11:24 PM
$24 wholesale. Compare that to the current wholesale price for 1.5Mbps ADSL ($28) PLUS line rental ($17-$20).

And memo Turnbull: Copper can't cope, fibre is its replacement. Whilst its true that 100Mbps is overkill for most residences, building a 25Mbps fibre network would be ridiculous, and no cheaper. Plus some businesses & schools will want 100Mbps.

Remember, most people can't get 12Mbps today.
peterh_oz
Dec 20, 2010 11:24 PM
$24 wholesale. Compare that to the current wholesale price for 1.5Mbps ADSL ($28) PLUS line rental ($17-$20).

And memo Turnbull: Copper can't cope, fibre is its replacement. Whilst its true that 100Mbps is overkill for most residences, building a 25Mbps fibre network would be ridiculous, and no cheaper. Plus some businesses & schools will want 100Mbps.

Remember, most people can't get 12Mbps today.
brownbear
Dec 21, 2010 7:39 AM
What I want to know is how many Gigs of data and what phone calls will be included in a basic retail offering of about $60 per month.

Higher speed is great but if the Telcos only give us 500MB of data and 30 local calls per month for the $60, as has happened in the past, then there is no value in the NBN for the average person.
djzort
Dec 21, 2010 9:04 AM
$25.01 is now the cheapest broadband plan available.

This is a huge fail for our aging population. Only need 1gig a month? Sorry $24 is the least the labor party will let you spend. Just feel good that your pension dollars are paying for regional areas to pirate movies.

How does that work anyway? Paying back tax payers? Isnt that just paying ourselves back?
martyvis
Dec 21, 2010 9:29 AM
dzzort: this is a wholesale price that the company is going to offer to retail providers. They can provide all sorts of innovative bundles to get your business. The government can't just magic away the cost.

If the government wants to subsidise the retail cost and give broadband to the aged for $10 they can. But that doesn't make sense for a company that needs to stand on it's on feet eventually.
martyvis
Dec 21, 2010 9:33 AM
brownbear: NBNco just provides access from the home back to the point of interconnect. They are not providing that connection (and hence the cost) of connecting to the rest of the internet where content might be.
umbria
Dec 21, 2010 11:41 AM
@djzort, if a pensioner wants telephone plus 1 GB of internet today they are paying at least $20.95 line rental and $20 for internet, plus a call plan and/or call costs. Health Card holders receive $33 a quarter rebate, i.e. $11 a month, so the cost is $30 before making any phone calls. A city pensioner might only make $5 worth of calls, but a pensioner STD plan is $25 and $1 per STD call. So thirty STD calls would cost $55 on top of the $30 for the service.

An entry level 12 Mbps plan including 50GB of data is expected to cost $53, less $11 rebate, leaving $42 total. Since everyone will have an NBN phone and VoIP only uses 28 MB/hour of data, you can bet that all calls will be free on the NBN.

Anyway, the government has already promised voice-only customers will pay no more than they do now, and the above shows how easy that is to deliver.
davmel
Dec 21, 2010 2:01 PM
For all the whingers out there complaining that $24 is too much to pay for basic internet you're forgetting that there will be an enormous number of cheap wireless internet options out there that will target that low end data and speed market. You can already get 1GB plans for a few dollars per month now. No one is going to force you to get a more expensive NBN service.
brownbear
Dec 21, 2010 3:06 PM
@martyvis So what has the NBN Co interconnect got to do with my question about retail NBN?

@umbria Thanks for the info. If they are giving us 50 GB at 12Mbps plus phone for around $53 then I would project that we will see 50GB internet, high definition IPTV (eg foxtel) and phone for around $100 per month which would probably be a good package.
umbria
Dec 21, 2010 5:14 PM
@brownbear, you've seen the light.

It must also be said that if the coalition wants to see an unpopular government returned yet again in 2013, it needs only threaten the NBN again. It is technically ideal for our extremely urbanised population, facilitates 97% availability of congestion-free 12 Mbps rock-solid wireless, thanks to the fibre to premises in large towns and cities which carries the heavy data and reduces the number of towers needed. And at under $25 a month per taxpayer over the decade it actually costs less to build than the monthly household savings.
Pilotyoda
Dec 26, 2010 3:45 PM
Why I wouldn't vote for the coalition. They have no maths between them. Holes in their budget, belief in the "market" as a cure for all of society's ills, belief that "competition" in a natural monopoly will drive consumer prices down (try telling that to Victorians) and belief in the magic fairy when she says that Wireless Broadband is a match for the capacity of Light!

Real numbers:
Maximum Capacity of Radio transmission = about 15Mb before contention, peak traffic, interference, etc. Limited number of sessions before service drops off or is unavailavle. We are reaching that limit now! Note: comes with a proliferation of towers EVERYWHERE.
Cost of wireless services is vastly more expensive than copper or fibre systems.
Maximum Capacity of Fibre: 200-1000THz = Over a million users at speeds of over a Gb/s Per Fibre! Given there will be multiple fibres, we will have a long way to go before any capacity restraints become an issue (>20yrs).

Real world: I am on ADSL2+. My connection speeds work out to <800Kb at best on busy times (and i have to share this in a fully connected household). Best speeds at seriously off peak times (3am monday mornings but not normally up then!) give me 2-3Mb. I save money because I couldn't use more than 50Gb at my speeds. My pref would be about 25/10Mb with 100G downloads.
My Son. An IT professional on ADSL2+ gets 10-20Mb and uses about 200-500G of data a month. He would prefer 50+Mb/1000G month.
The current system does not give either of us adequate speeds Wireless could NOT do it at all.
Conclusion: Bring on the fibre!
cduston
Dec 30, 2010 9:41 AM
What about the cost?

That's $35.9 Billion in capital expenditure plus $21.8 Billion for operating funds -- for a total of $57.7 Billion. There are 22,517,262 people in Australia according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics population clock today.

So after they spend $2,562.47 for every man woman and child then you'll only have to pay $50 a month for high speed internet.

Oh, only so long as they get a government granted monopoly.
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