Analysis: Did the NBN rollout plan win seats?

By Brett Winterford on Aug 23, 2010 2:06 PM
Filed under Networking

Yes in Tassie, a resounding no on the mainland.

Voters in seats named as first and second release sites for Australia's National Broadband Network appear to have focused on issues beyond the NBN during the 2010 Federal Election, with the ALP gaining additional votes in only a handful of these electorates.

An iTnews' analysis (see in full below) reveals that the ALP gained in two-party preferred votes in nine of the 24 sites named to get connected to the NBN before the rest of Australia.

In four of the five mainland seats in which the ALP made gains on a two-party preferred basis, the gains came predominantly from preference votes as a greater share of the electorate swung to the Greens.

In Tasmania, by contrast, the ALP made significant gains in four of the five first release sites, with a fifth seat hanging in the balance. The ALP's gains were most pronounced in the three towns (Midway Point, Scottsdale and Smithton) that are already connecting to live NBN services.

The stats reveal that voting behaviour varied state to state, with otherwise little uniform approach by voters in areas earmarked for an early NBN rollout.

In Queensland and the Northern Territory, voters swung away from the ALP in all sites earmarked for an early NBN, with the ALP losing the seats of Brisbane (QLD), Herbert (QLD) and Solomon (NT). Analysts suggest that dissatisfaction with the Queensland State ALP Government and with the ungraceful usurping of former Prime Minister Rudd would have played a strong role in this swing.

First and second release sites in New South Wales also remained in Coalition hands.

In Western Australia, the ALP kept one of its three NBN site seats, but made no gains with voters.

In Julia Gillard's power base of Victoria, the ALP won a single NBN-earmarked seat from the Coalition (McEwan) and retained two others. The ALP also retained Fraser in the ACT.

In South Australia, the ALP kept its NBN site seats, attracting more votes in two of the three seats.

Do NBN seats swing? (two party preferred votes)

Victoria

Bacchus Marsh (Ballarat)
Election results 2010: 61.94% (ALP), 38.06% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 58.15% (ALP), 41.85% (LP/NP)
Remains a fairly safe ALP seat - strong swing to ALP on two-party preferred, driven by Greens preferences (Greens candidate enjoyed a 2.98 percent swing).

South Morang (McEwen)
Election results 2010: 55.60% (ALP), 44.4% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 49.98% (ALP), 50.02% (LP/NP)
Key Liberal marginal swings by a whopping 5.62 percent to the ALP on two-party preferred. Local ALP member had a 3.67 percent increase in the first preference vote, whilst Greens candidate Steve Meacher attracted an additional 2.85 percent.

Brunswick (Wills)
Election results 2010: 72.99% (ALP), 27.01% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 72.40% (ALP), 27.60% (LP/NP)
A swing in favour of the ALP, thanks largely to Greens preferences (Greens enjoyed 5.54 percent swing).

Queensland

Brisbane (Brisbane)
Election results 2010: 49.32% (ALP), 50.68% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 56.76% (ALP), 43.24% (LP/NP)
A 5.28 percent swing to the Coalition. ALP member Arch Bevis loses his seat, down 12.4 percent on the first preference vote and despite Andrew Bartlett boosting the Greens vote by 9.74 percent.

Springfield Lakes (Oxley)
Election results 2010: 56.22% (ALP), 43.78% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 61.34% (ALP), 38.66% (LP/NP)
A 5.2 percent swing to the Coalition, with ALP MP Bernie Ripoll's first preference vote down by over ten percent, a 6.1 percent boost to the Greens and around three percent each to the Coalition and Family First. The ALP still hold this seat.

Toowoomba (Groom)
Election results 2010: 31.85% (ALP), 68.15% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 41.78% (ALP), 58.22% (LP/NP)
Local Coalition MP Ian McFarlane storms home with a 9.93 percent swing on two party preferred and 7.94 percent on first preference. A fairly safe Liberal seat made safer.

Townsville (Herbert)
Election results 2010: 47.84% (ALP), 52.14% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 50.03% (ALP), 49.97% (LP/NP)
ALP candidate has conceded defeat after boosts to both Liberal Party and Family First candidates.

New South Wales

Riverstone (Greenway) STILL IN PLAY
Election results 2010: 50.82% (ALP), 49.18% (LP/NP)*
Election results 2007: 55.67% (ALP), 44.33% (LP/NP)
A 4.8 percent swing to the Coalition after ALP member Michele Rowland's first preference vote dropped 7.1 percent. Will the ALP hang on?

Coffs Harbour (Cowper)
Election results 2010: 41.02% (ALP), 58.98% (NP)
Election results 2007: 48.77% (ALP), 51.23% (NP)
A 7.7 percent swing to the Nationals turns a marginal Coalition seat into a safer one.

Armidale (New England)
Election results 2010: 71.61% (IND), 28.39% (NAT)
Election results 2008: 74.41% (IND), 25.59% (NAT)
Won decisively by Independent Tony Windsor, with 71.61 percent of the two party preferred vote. The Nationals a distant second, Country Labor not even in the race.

Minnamurra (Gilmore)
Election results 2010: 45.04% (ALP), 54.96% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 50.41% (ALP), 49.59% (LP/NP)
A 5.37 percent swing away from the ALP on two party preferred, seat in the hands of the Coalition.

South Australia

Modbury (Makin)
Election results 2010: 62.16% (ALP), 37.84% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 57.70% (ALP), 42.30% (LP/NP)
The ALP gained a 4.46 percent swing on two-party preferred, with the Greens up 5.4 percent on first preference and the Liberal candidate down 7.92 percent.

Prospect (Adelaide)
Election results 2010: 58.23% (ALP), 41.77% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 58.53% (ALP), 41.47% (LP/NP)
Slight swing to the Coalition, but ALP seat remains safe.

Willunga (Kingston)
Election results 2010: 64.41% (ALP), 35.59% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 54.42% (ALP), 45.58% (LP/NP)
A 9.9 percent swing to the ALP on two-party preferred, with the ALP candidate up 5.5 percent and the Greens candidate up 6.52 percent. Now a firm ALP seat.

Western Australia

Victoria Park (Swan)
Election results 2010: 47.75% (ALP), 52.25% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 50.27% (ALP), 49.73% (LP/NP)
Remains a Liberal seat.

Geraldton (O'Connor)
Election results 2010: 45.79% (LP), 54.21% (NP)
Liberal candidate Wilson Tuckey loses his seat to the National Party. ALP candidate's first preference vote down 9 percent and barely in the race.

Mandurah (Brand)
Election results 2010: 53.76% (ALP), 46.24% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 55.98% (ALP), 44.02 (LP/NP)
ALP member Gary Gray keeps his seat, despite a 5.04 percent swing away from his first preference vote. The Greens candidate enjoyed a 5.72 percent boost.

Northern Territory

Casuarina (Solomon)
Election results 2010: 47.34% (ALP), 52.66% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 50.19% (ALP), 49.81% (LP/NP)
Country Liberals win this seat from the ALP.

ACT

Gungahlin (Fraser)
Election results 2010: 64.69% (ALP), 35.31% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 65.07% (ALP), 34.93% (LP/NP)
Remains a safe ALP seat.

Tasmania

Midway Point, Sorell, Triabunna, Deloraine, St Helens (Lyons)
Election results 2010: 62.67% (ALP), 37.33% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 58.34% (ALP), 41.66% (LP/NP)
A 4.33 percent swing to the ALP on two-party preferred. The local ALP candidate also enjoyed a 6.09 percent boost as first preferred. A safe ALP seat.
Scottsdale, George Town (Bass)
Election results 2010: 57.04% (ALP), 42.96% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 51.03% (ALP), 48.97% (LP/NP)
ALP takes a firm hold on an otherwise marginal seat. A 6.01 percent swing to the ALP on two-party preferred and 6.74 percent swing on first preferred.

South Hobart, (Denison) STILL IN PLAY*
Election results 2010: 53.19% (ALP), 46.81% (IND)*
Independent Andrew Wilkie attracts huge votes - the ALP first preference vote down 12.17 percent. But the ALP might still hang on and win this seat.

Kingston Beach, (Franklin)
Election results 2010: 60.71% (ALP), 39.29% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 54.03% (ALP), 45.97% (LP/NP)
A 6.68 percent swing to the ALP on two-party preferred, with a 2.58 percent boost in the first preferred vote and a 6.02 percent boost for the Greens. Safe seat made safer.

Smithton (Braddon)
Election results 2010: 57.96% (ALP), 42.04% (LP/NP)
Election results 2007: 52.32% (ALP), 47.68% (LP/NP)
The ALP further secures this seat with a 5.18 percent boost to the ALP's first preferred and a 5.64 percent boost to its two-party preferred vote.

What do you think? Did the NBN impact your vote? Comment below...

Analysis: Did the NBN rollout plan win seats?

24 comments in this discussion

"Regarding the announcements made by Independents today, broadband seems to be last on the agenda. What they care about most seems to be stability and parliamentary structure and not the NBN (most ..."

By deteego

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Comments: 24

Digger11 Aug 23, 2010 2:35 PM	I think you'll find that the ridiculous waste of Taxpayers money, called the NBN, was one of the main reasons a first term party has been voted out of office for the first time in 70 years. As Abbot says, "stop the waste". Let's all depserately hope that the Independents are intelligent enough to do a deal with the only party we can trust - however I doubt this will occur as those Labour snakes will do absolutely anything to stay on the Govt. payroll. Oh well, there goes the neighbourhood.....
Ace Aug 23, 2010 2:58 PM	Yes, but at least the neighbourhood will be going at 1gbps :)
Hovo Aug 23, 2010 3:17 PM	For Copper and Wireless there is only so much potential in this technology. On the other hand we haven't been able to harness the full speeds of fibre yet, so one it in the ground we can upgrade the equipment at the end when new technology comes along. So I would call the NBN a investment for the future.
HubertCumberdale Aug 23, 2010 3:33 PM	I dont know how anyone can call a future proof network a waste, Tony Abbots patchwork OPEL-esque solution would be a waste. Can you imagine 20 years from know Australia the only country in the developed world without a fibre network?
Res Aug 23, 2010 4:00 PM	Future proofing? well we call it that now, but in 10 - 15 years it will seems ancient technology, just like 10 - 15 years ago when cable internet was getting off the ground here. Also, it is not wise to spend 43 billion when you can not afford it, we are deep in dept from the recession, when you recover from THAT completely, and have billions to spare, then look at it, but like someone said, 2.1 million homes already have access to this speed now and have done so for years, why is there no take up. And... WHY would your immediate future plan, include areas ALREADY capable of high speed data via DSL? and not areas that cant do better than 56k dialup, and please, do not give me this oh but for medial cameras blah blah blah rhetoric, and, it will never see the end of data quotas, the only change will be lil warez puppies will use all their quota up in a day, then cry they are shaped to 56k for the rest of the other 29/30 days in the month. That said, I do NOT believe wireless is the answer, there are ways to improve/expand on xDSL technology over the existing copper, which is more than adequate for most people (warez puppies excluded of course)
papaiso Aug 23, 2010 4:01 PM	The NBN and the Internet Filter affected my vote. I think the NBN is a great idea but I did not like the idea of the filter as it may be used to limit/control our freedom of speech and information.
grumpy Aug 23, 2010 4:02 PM	Austrlia does have a fibre network - we have fibre into the computer room at work, but do I want/need that at home - NO. If the there is a need and there is money to be made private enterprise will roll out what the customer wants. In ten years time very few people will be sitting at home on the end of a fibre cable.
noobi Aug 23, 2010 4:21 PM	did we need telephones all that time ago? wake up it is going to be cheaper to lay new fibre than it is to replace the old cr@p copper with new copper, and i agree there is new tech to increase the speeds avalable on copper for the lucky few that live within a 1KM of the exchange. fibre is IS the only way to upgrade the telco infrastructure, why do you think the telcos run fibre between exchanges? i can tell you now, it is cheaper to run it is cheaper to maintain, is more secure(than copper)less suseptible to interference than copper,uses alot less power,easy to upgrade speeds type of services. people are forgetting that this fibre is not just to increase the speed of residential internet.its more like a utility eg: power/water. to speed up someones gaming expirience is just a side effect...
waterytowers Aug 23, 2010 4:31 PM	I think the resounding no for the mainland is incorrect. As it is well known that a vote for the greens is a vote for the NBN without the internet filter. So it is actually a resounding no for the internet filter , not the NBN. If it was a vote against the NBN people would have purely voted for the Liberal/National Party.
umbria Aug 23, 2010 4:32 PM	I voted on other issues, but heavily lobbied my local member on the technical ideal that is the NBN, and how the coalition should offer to deliver it, starting in the regions first and with better financial oversight. Had they gone this way instead of making donkeys of themselves over the technical stuff, perhaps a few swinging votes might have gone their way instead of to the Greens. Digger11, notice that the Armidale result shows how pro-fibre Tony Windsor swept all others aside up there. And Port Macquarie under Rob Oakshott wants some of the fibre action, too. Both are calling for the coalition to acknowledge that they got it wrong over broadband for regional Australia. Fibre is on their wish-list. Res, the 50 Mbps ADSL speed upgrades only work for 500 metres, utterly useless outside dense cities. Faster widespread ADSL would also need someone to pay for and maintain 20,000 new DSLAMs, and few will be happy with sub-10 Mbps ADSL anyway in five years time. Fibre laid once is there for half a century and can sustain all imaginable speed upgrades without changing anything, within the normal switch replacement cycle of the exchanges. NTT proved 69.1 Tbps over a single 240 km fibre on 25 March 2010. What's your suburb's bandwidth? I do agree with you that fixed wireless is not a very good option, since with a rooftop mast you don't even get mobility as a trade-off for its flakiness.
HubertCumberdale Aug 23, 2010 4:33 PM	Res wrote: Future proofing? well we call it that now, but in 10 - 15 years it will seems ancient technology, just like 10 - 15 years ago when cable internet was getting off the ground here. What??? scientists have discovered someway of transferring large wads of data faster than fibre allows? oh you must be talking about quantum entanglement technologies, yes that will be viable in 15 years.
Ace Aug 23, 2010 4:41 PM	It's difficult to see quantum teleportation being viable on a commercial level in 15 years, but maybe I'm just being pessimistic. I'd be suprised if the NBN had a very big impact on the mainland vote, as it is a little intangible to most voters. However, it seems that it may well be a deciding factor in winning support of Greens and Independents by the major parties over the next few days.
sydneyla Aug 23, 2010 5:33 PM	Hey Tony you're going to have to ramp up that Broadband offer to gain your PMship. Probably FTTN or FTTP with the financial and technical assistance of Telstra and perhaps Optus.
davmel Aug 23, 2010 5:55 PM	I have no doubt that the swing in the seat of La Trobe (VIC) had a significant influence by the NBN. Households received a specific letter dedicated to explaining the benefit of the NBN which no doubt fed the resentment that many brand new households have had towards their RIM'd estates south of Berwick and Beaconsfield. Also the resentment towards Telstra-only fibre estates at rip off prices would have had voters swinging. Everyone keeps harping on that if there is demand that companies will build it, but that only results in greedy companies that build exclusive communications infrastructure that locks owners to a specific company, e.g. crappy BigPond service. If you want an SLA or some other more reliable business grade service to run a home business then too bad, suffer in your jocks! @HubertCumberdale "What??? scientists have discovered someway of transferring large wads of data faster than fibre allows? oh you must be talking about quantum entanglement technologies, yes that will be viable in 15 years." That's hilarious BS. Fibre will be the preferred high bandwidth communications medium for the rest of this century and beyond. You can sit around waiting for cold fusion and perpetual motion machines all you want, but the rest of us need solutions that work.
HubertCumberdale Aug 23, 2010 6:36 PM	davmel wrote: That's hilarious BS. Fibre will be the preferred high bandwidth communications medium for the rest of this century and beyond. You can sit around waiting for cold fusion and perpetual motion machines all you want, but the rest of us need solutions that work. Apparently you are incapable of detecting sarcasm, did you not even read my first post in this thread?
Paul K Aug 23, 2010 6:43 PM	NTT was able to achieve 69.1 Tb/s transmission by applying wavelength division multiplex (WDM) of 432 wavelengths with a capacity of 171 Gb/s over a single 240 km-long optical fiber. This is the highest optical transmission ever recorded in the transmission field
listohan Aug 24, 2010 8:33 AM	@Res, You seem to have some insight into the future. Can you tell me when we can expect wheel 2.0? My billycart needs upgrading.
advocate Aug 24, 2010 9:05 AM	It is extremely simplistic to view the election result as either a No or Yes vote for the NBN based on whether Labor gained/retained or lost a seat or the Coalition gained/retained or lost a seat, there are other factors at play here, especially in NSW and QLD where Labor received a massive backlash which lead to the hung Parliament. One poster here insinuated that a vote for the Green's was a vote for the NBN, that doesn't really explain the only seat the Greens won in the Lower House was in the CBD seat of Melbourne, already well serviced by virtually every high speed ISP out there with their own exchange gear. The Green vote was all about a lack of commitment from either major party for a Climate change policy, I am sure most Green voters were not aware the Green's supported the NBN. Edited by advocate: 24/8/2010 09:07:55 AM
Sams Aug 24, 2010 9:14 AM	"The Green vote was all about a lack of commitment from either major party for a Climate change policy, I am sure most Green voters were not aware the Green's supported the NBN." I agree. Most wouldn't know what the NBN was.
RDEFCON1 Aug 24, 2010 9:41 AM	@advocate and @Sams Agree with you both, and the Greens vote would have been much higher if they weren't so far left on economic policy. For the marginally conservative voter who might have voted Howard out but is concerned about the financial imprudence of Labor... the Greens are a tough ask. Where is the conservative Green party? I'd vote for them!
Ace Aug 24, 2010 11:16 AM	It no longer matters why people voted Greens or Independents. The fact does seem to be that the ALP NBN plan is one of the key reasons the Greens and Independents will side with Labor.
advocate Aug 24, 2010 1:12 PM	True enough Ace, but all conceptions of what Labor and Coalition Communications policy was before the election is out the window as Abbott and Gillard dance to the tune "I wanna be PM" in front of the Independents.
umbria Aug 24, 2010 4:43 PM	Paul Budde writes today that the coalition probably needs to eat some humble pie and offer a fibre rollout to regional areas as a start, and elsewhere later, with existing ADSL2 and HFC areas to be addressed last if business hasn't delivered. And that Telstra's infrastructure separation needs to be on the agenda.
deteego Aug 25, 2010 2:16 PM	Regarding the announcements made by Independents today, broadband seems to be last on the agenda. What they care about most seems to be stability and parliamentary structure and not the NBN (most likely because they see both parties have different approaches to broadband, each with their advantages and disadvantages) They also want to see the budget books, without any hiding of what is being/what will be spent. Not sure if thats a good thing for Labor ;p Edited by deteego: 25/8/2010 02:17:38 PM